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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Lottario Early Bird · every number
In Lottario Early Bird under the 4/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 108 draws, 4 from 1–45.
Drawn 11 times in 108 draws against 9.6 expected, +0.47σ. Each draw is independent: after 15 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 11 times in 108 draws · average wait 9.2 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 15 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 31 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 19 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 21 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 31 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 31 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | 8 | 4th | 2132931 |
| 2026-05-09 | 19 | 2nd | 17313741 |
| 2025-12-27 | 16 | 3rd | 20283139 |
| 2025-09-06 | 6 | 2nd | 16313245 |
| 2025-07-26 | 4 | 2nd | 17314042 |
| 2025-06-28 | 4 | 4th | 7122631 |
| 2025-05-31 | 20 | 3rd | 19273143 |
| 2025-01-11 | 4 | 3rd | 9283134 |
| 2024-12-14 | 8 | 4th | 9223031 |
| 2024-10-19 | 3 | 1st | 31374045 |
| 2024-09-28 | — | 4th | 6172231 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 31 is drawn with probability 4/45 tonight whatever it did last week.