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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£10,500,000
The crowdHeld 34% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 443 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 442 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 August 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 53 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 50% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 44 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 442 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (10, 39, 50) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 6 February 2015 — its closest relative in 442 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 88% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (31 July 2015): 50 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 9 repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 159 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →39 had not appeared for 31 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈14M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 — 811,747 winners, 34% more than the 608k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 811,747 | £3.20 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 385,410 | £6.70 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 88,626 | £10.80 |
| Match 3 | 52,755 | £10.40 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 17,196 | £19.80 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 25,948 | £12.50 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,198 | £62.00 |
| Match 4 | 1,089 | £95.40 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 579 | £180 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 22 | £5,402 |
| Match 5 | 7 | £33,957 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 2 | £356,551 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £10,500,000 |