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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£10,582,500
The crowdHeld 11% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 447 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 446 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 August 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 14 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 1% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 45 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 446 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (11, 12) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 3 July 2015 — its closest relative in 446 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (14 August 2015): 7 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 59 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11, 11–12. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →11 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 3.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈22M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 plus Bonus Ball — 1,230 winners, 64% more than the 751 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,050,964 | £2.50 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 561,734 | £4.50 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 138,070 | £6.80 |
| Match 3 | 88,671 | £6.00 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 31,987 | £10.40 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 47,085 | £6.80 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 2,638 | £27.60 |
| Match 4 | 2,455 | £41.60 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 1,230 | £83.10 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 73 | £1,600 |
| Match 5 | 12 | £19,470 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 4 | £175,228 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £10,582,500 |