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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£17,370,968
The crowdHeld 25% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 448 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 447 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 August 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 59 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 68% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 45 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 447 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 18, 43, 47) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 4 July 2014 — its closest relative in 447 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 4.7% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (18 August 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 128 — the 50th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →47 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈22M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 — 1,192,195 winners, 25% more than the 957k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,192,195 | £3.20 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 515,122 | £7.30 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 139,614 | £10.00 |
| Match 3 | 75,930 | £10.40 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 25,318 | £19.50 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 33,467 | £14.10 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,654 | £65.00 |
| Match 4 | 1,653 | £91.10 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 761 | £198 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 41 | £4,199 |
| Match 5 | 8 | £43,044 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 6 | £172,178 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £17,370,968 |