In EuroMillions under the 5/50 + 2/9 · Feb 2004 – May 2011 rules — 378 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
47times drawn · chance expected 38 +1.58σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 81% for any number
8.1average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
24longest completed wait · 99% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 47 times in 378 draws against 37.8 expected, +1.58σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 47 times in 378 draws · average wait 8.1 draws · longest completed wait 24 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 49 numbers; chance expected about 1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.