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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 15 May 2021

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 6
  2. 8
  3. 17
  4. 25
  5. 26
  6. 31
  7. 15

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 791 of 1,359 under them

← 2021-05-12All recent draws2021-05-19 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed6 8 17 25 26 31 + 1529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 May 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

71oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 71 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 90% of every possible ticket.

  • sum36th
  • odd50th
  • low50th
  • widest gap19th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread23th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 119 of each

6115times
8110times
17130times
25119times
26

Prize breakdown · 2021-05-15

  • Lines in play≈ 8.0Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.5Mto 267k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 62 winnerschance said 2.1

Where the money went

  • Match 640%NZ$1M
  • Match 420%NZ$487.7K
  • Match 3 + Bonus19%NZ$469.9K
  • 3 other tiers22%NZ$538K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 62≈ 2.1 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

124times
31117times

Every number was expected about that many times after 790 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (6, 8, 26, 31) with the draw of 6 February 2019 — its closest relative in 790 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 83% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 May 2021): 26 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

113

The numbers add up to 113 — the 35th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 25–26. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$500,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus13≈ 12 by chanceNZ$18,637
  • Match 5436≈ 411 by chanceNZ$551
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,046≈ 1.0k by chanceNZ$53.00
  • Match 416,816≈ 16k by chanceNZ$29.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus22,374≈ 22k by chanceNZ$21.00
  • Match 3226,698≈ 227k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈8.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 16,816 winners, 2% more than the 16k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 62NZ$500,000
    Match 5 + Bonus13NZ$18,637
    Match 5436NZ$551
    Match 4 + Bonus1,046NZ$53.00
    Match 416,816NZ$29.00
    Match 3 + Bonus22,374NZ$21.00
    Match 3226,698NZ$0.00
    Totals267,385—