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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 22 July 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 3
  2. 4
  3. 12
  4. 22
  5. 24
  6. 25
  7. 10

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,019 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-07-19All recent draws2023-07-26 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed3 4 12 22 24 25 + 1029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 22 July 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

44oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 44 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 28% of every possible ticket.

  • sum11th
  • odd21th
  • low50th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours91th
  • spread13th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 153 of each

3146times
4153times
12156times
22163times
24

Prize breakdown · 2023-07-22

  • Lines in play≈ 11Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$3Mto 373k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 2.9

Where the money went

  • Match 633%NZ$1M
  • Match 422%NZ$647.6K
  • Match 3 + Bonus21%NZ$625.8K
  • 3 other tiers24%NZ$722K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 2.9 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

165times
25159times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,018 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (3, 4, 22, 25) with the draw of 2 October 2019 — its closest relative in 1,018 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 July 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

90

The numbers add up to 90 — the 11th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 24–25. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus17≈ 17 by chanceNZ$19,139
  • Match 5582≈ 572 by chanceNZ$554
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,648≈ 1.4k by chanceNZ$45.00
  • Match 423,130≈ 23k by chanceNZ$28.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus32,935≈ 30k by chanceNZ$19.00
  • Match 3315,024≈ 315k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈11M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,648 winners, 15% more than the 1.4k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus17NZ$19,139
    Match 5582NZ$554
    Match 4 + Bonus1,648NZ$45.00
    Match 423,130NZ$28.00
    Match 3 + Bonus32,935NZ$19.00
    Match 3315,024NZ$0.00
    Totals373,337—