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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 21 October 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 8
  2. 13
  3. 26
  4. 29
  5. 33
  6. 40
  7. 23

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,045 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-10-18All recent draws2023-10-25 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed8 13 26 29 33 40 + 2329 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

63oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 63 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 75% of every possible ticket.

  • sum83th
  • odd50th
  • low21th
  • widest gap58th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread62th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 157 of each

8142times
13156times
26159times
29167times
33

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-21

  • Lines in play≈ 7.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$1.5Mto 257k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 2.0

Where the money went

  • Match 5 + Bonus16%NZ$246.2K
  • Match 432%NZ$491.8K
  • Match 3 + Bonus32%NZ$481.1K
  • 2 other tiers20%NZ$299.8K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 2.0 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

151times
40155times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,044 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (8, 13, 29, 40) with the draw of 11 March 2020 — its closest relative in 1,044 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 October 2023): 13, 40 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

149

The numbers add up to 149 — the 83th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

33 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 23% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus17≈ 12 by chanceNZ$14,482
  • Match 5374≈ 394 by chanceNZ$653
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,068≈ 984 by chanceNZ$52.00
  • Match 415,866≈ 16k by chanceNZ$31.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus22,910≈ 21k by chanceNZ$21.00
  • Match 3217,009≈ 217k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Bonus — 22,910 winners, 9% more than the 21k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus17NZ$14,482
    Match 5374NZ$653
    Match 4 + Bonus1,068NZ$52.00
    Match 415,866NZ$31.00
    Match 3 + Bonus22,910NZ$21.00
    Match 3217,009NZ$0.00
    Totals257,244—