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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 25 October 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 9
  2. 10
  3. 20
  4. 21
  5. 26
  6. 35
  7. 6

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,046 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-10-21All recent draws2023-10-28 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed9 10 20 21 26 35 + 629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 25 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

70oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 70 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 89% of every possible ticket.

  • sum47th
  • odd50th
  • low50th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours91th
  • spread28th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 157 of each

9148times
10164times
20156times
21156times
26

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-25

  • Lines in play≈ 5.9Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$1.2Mto 198k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 1.5

Where the money went

  • Match 5 + Bonus16%NZ$191.1K
  • Match 432%NZ$376.8K
  • Match 3 + Bonus32%NZ$370.5K
  • 2 other tiers20%NZ$233.4K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 1.5 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

160times
35163times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,045 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (20, 21, 26, 35) with the draw of 22 October 2016 — its closest relative in 1,045 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 October 2023): 26 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

121

The numbers add up to 121 — the 46th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10, 20–21. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 10% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus4≈ 9.2 by chanceNZ$47,768
  • Match 5299≈ 305 by chanceNZ$634
  • Match 4 + Bonus782≈ 762 by chanceNZ$56.00
  • Match 411,774≈ 12k by chanceNZ$32.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus16,842≈ 16k by chanceNZ$22.00
  • Match 3168,008≈ 168k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.9M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Bonus — 16,842 winners, 4% more than the 16k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus4NZ$47,768
    Match 5299NZ$634
    Match 4 + Bonus782NZ$56.00
    Match 411,774NZ$32.00
    Match 3 + Bonus16,842NZ$22.00
    Match 3168,008NZ$0.00
    Totals197,709—