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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 19 October 2024

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 15
  3. 20
  4. 21
  5. 26
  6. 30
  7. 5

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,149 of 1,359 under them

← 2024-10-16All recent draws2024-10-23 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 15 20 21 26 30 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 19 October 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

75oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 75 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 94% of every possible ticket.

  • sum37th
  • odd21th
  • low50th
  • widest gap58th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread38th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 172 of each

2173times
15191times
20171times
21170times
26

Prize breakdown · 2024-10-19

  • Lines in play≈ 13Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$3.5Mto 424k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 3.3

Where the money went

  • Match 629%NZ$1M
  • Match 423%NZ$795.9K
  • Match 3 + Bonus23%NZ$790K
  • 3 other tiers26%NZ$888.7K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 3.3 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

169times
30166times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,148 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (15, 21, 26, 30) with the draw of 14 October 2015 — its closest relative in 1,148 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 92% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 October 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

114

The numbers add up to 114 — the 36th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 20–21. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.0× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus31≈ 20 by chanceNZ$12,910
  • Match 5606≈ 647 by chanceNZ$655
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,796≈ 1.6k by chanceNZ$51.00
  • Match 425,674≈ 26k by chanceNZ$31.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus39,498≈ 35k by chanceNZ$20.00
  • Match 3356,814≈ 357k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈13M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Bonus — 39,498 winners, 14% more than the 35k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus31NZ$12,910
    Match 5606NZ$655
    Match 4 + Bonus1,796NZ$51.00
    Match 425,674NZ$31.00
    Match 3 + Bonus39,498NZ$20.00
    Match 3356,814NZ$0.00
    Totals424,420—