Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
US · AR · ball game
Latest drawThursday, 22 October 2026
Jackpot$190,000
Top prizeNot won — 35 draws unwon
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 23 Oct 2026, 07:01 UTC.
5 numbers from 1–39. 4,538 draws held here since 2012-09-17.
Your numbers, read by every tool
Type the numbers you always play. Has the line ever come up? How close has Natural State Jackpot come? What has each number done, what does the line look like, and has the same set turned up anywhere else in the world?
Every tool, for this game
Each one opens with Natural State Jackpot already selected. The line under every title is true of this game’s rules right now — not a promise about its next draw.

In 4,538 draws every number is expected about 582 times, and a ball favoured by more than 16% over its share would already have shown — see which ones strayed, and how far chance allows.

A number waits 8 draws on average; 5% of the time it waits 23 or more. It is never “due”.

The 5 numbers add up to about 100, give or take 24. Most tickets sit in that bell — and so do most draws.

43.6% of draws contain two numbers side by side. That is the rules talking, not luck.

741 possible pairs, each expected together 61.2 times so far — and about 7 will look “special” by chance alone.

All 39 numbers as a constellation of who appeared with whom — indistinguishable from a shuffled sky.

52% of draws repeat a number from the draw before. A whole draw repeating: 100.0% likely by now.

Sorted, the numbers sit about 6.7 apart on average — and every “spread” you can name is exactly as likely as every other.

It takes about 32 draws for every one of the 39 numbers to appear at least once. The last few are the slow ones.

575,757 possible tickets. Every one has a face — and a typicality score you can look up.

Seven independent tests of randomness run live against all 4,538 draws. Any of them can fail; watch whether they do.

The lowest number lands near 7, the highest near 33. Position is a property of sorting, not of the balls.

5/39 rescaled onto the same axes as every other game here. One law, many machines.

Six documented cases of a beaten lottery. Not one involved patterns in past draws.

What the world believes about 7, 8, 13 and 17 — and what every machine says back.

At 30 million tickets, an average line keeps about 2% of a jackpot it wins. Unpopular numbers keep more — and still lose money.

A full wheel of 10 numbers here is 252 tickets. A guarantee is real; a profit is not.

Five folk claims about 5/39 games, each answered with the closed form that kills it — never a tip for the next draw.

This is a without-replacement ball game; the Digit Laboratory is for Pick 3 and Pick 4.
Not for this game
The Chernoff Map reads the straight tier of a digit game, which counts tickets on one exact number; a ball game has no such row.
Not for this game
This game draws once a day, so it has no second draw to compare its first with.
Not for this gameThis draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 22 October 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 68% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 582 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,537 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 18, 26) with the draw of 25 May 2026 — its closest relative in 4,537 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (21 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 86 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →11 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈24k lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 — 2,545 winners, 0% more than the 2.5k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 5 | 0 | $190,000 |
| Match 4 | 12 | $300 |
| Match 3 | 229 | $7.00 |
| Match 2 | 2,545 | $1.00 |
| Totals | 2,786 | — |
What the top prize has been, draw by draw. It climbs while nobody wins and drops to the floor when somebody does — the sawtooth every rollover game draws.
Happenedwhat chance predicts
Completed waits between wins, against the geometric law those waits follow if every draw is an independent chance at the jackpot. The law takes its one parameter from the waits themselves, so this compares shape, not level.
Open any draw to read it by every tool — the same six readings the latest result gets above, each against what chance predicted at the time.
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 23 Oct 2026, 07:01 UTC.
Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 68% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 582 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,537 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
These waits do not fall away from zero the way the law does — they pile up in the middle. That is what happens when the chance of a win is not the same on every draw of a run: few tickets are sold when the prize is small, and so many when it is enormous that a win becomes close to certain. The wait is more predictable than a constant chance allows, and less predictable than it feels.
| Draws waited | Happened | Chance says |
|---|---|---|
| 0–5 | 4 | 9.2 |
| 6–11 | 7 | 7.3 |
| 12–17 | 7 | 5.9 |
| 18–23 | 8 | 4.7 |
| 24–29 | 3 | 3.8 |
| 30–35 | 4 | 3.0 |
| 36–41 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 42–47 | 5 | 1.9 |
| 48–53 | 3 | 1.5 |
| 54–59 | 2 | 1.2 |
| 60+ | 3 | 5.0 |
Scored 38 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 20% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 582 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,536 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (22, 29, 32) with the draw of 21 November 2025 — its closest relative in 4,536 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (20 October 2026): 2, 30 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 115 — the 72th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →29 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 43 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 29% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 581 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,535 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 10, 16, 20) with the draw of 1 March 2024 — its closest relative in 4,535 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (19 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 78 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →20 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 49 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 42% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 581 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,534 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 18, 35, 39) with the draw of 5 May 2023 — its closest relative in 4,534 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (18 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 127 — the 86th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →35 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 56 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 63% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 581 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,533 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (13, 14, 36) with the draw of 27 July 2026 — its closest relative in 4,533 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (17 October 2026): 23 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 113 — the 70th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →27 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 52 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 51% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 581 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,532 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 19, 23) with the draw of 28 September 2026 — its closest relative in 4,532 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (16 October 2026): 23 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 102 — the 52th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →4 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 49 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 43% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 581 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,531 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (22, 23, 30) with the draw of 28 June 2026 — its closest relative in 4,531 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (15 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 121 — the 80th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →30 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 46 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 34% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 581 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,530 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 7, 32, 34) with the draw of 5 November 2019 — its closest relative in 4,530 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (14 October 2026): 2 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 78 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →34 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 25 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 5% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 581 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,529 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 12, 17) with the draw of 4 October 2026 — its closest relative in 4,529 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (13 October 2026): 12 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 61 — the 5th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →22 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 56% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 581 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,528 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (12, 15, 16, 25) with the draw of 17 December 2024 — its closest relative in 4,528 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (12 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 96 — the 43th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →12 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 47 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 37% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,527 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (8, 18, 19, 24) with the draw of 21 September 2026 — its closest relative in 4,527 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (11 October 2026): 19 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 92 — the 36th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19, 23–24. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →24 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 52 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 51% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,526 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 19, 20) with the draw of 5 June 2026 — its closest relative in 4,526 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (10 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 84 — the 25th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 6–7, 19–20. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →20 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →