In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/36 · Jan 1999 – May 2002 rules — 348 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
45times drawn · chance expected 35 +1.82σ
1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number
7.6average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
50longest completed wait · 22% chance of one at least that long
1 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 45 times in 348 draws against 34.8 expected, +1.82σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
1
Number 1, draw by draw
Drawn 45 times in 348 draws · average wait 7.6 draws · longest completed wait 50 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 1 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 2 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 1 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 1 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 1 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.