In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/31 + 1/16 · since Oct 2024 rules — 742 draws, 1 from 1–16.
50times drawn · chance expected 46 +0.55σ
12draws waiting · a wait this long: 49% for any number
14.7average wait between appearances · chance says 16.0
55longest completed wait · 78% chance of one at least that long
3 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 50 times in 742 draws against 46.4 expected, +0.55σ. Each draw is independent: after 12 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
3
Number 3, draw by draw
Drawn 50 times in 742 draws · average wait 14.7 draws · longest completed wait 55 · waiting 12 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 3 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 15 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 3 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 16. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 3 is drawn with probability 1/16 tonight whatever it did last week.