Sunday, 3 February 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 16, 24) with the draw of 4 January 2019 — its closest relative in 91 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 50% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 February 2019): 31 carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 107 — the 45th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.