Saturday, 26 November 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (30, 32, 33) with the draw of 7 March 2011 — its closest relative in 511 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 November 2011): 30, 33 carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 121 — the 83th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 32–33. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 40 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.