Monday, 2 June 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (9, 11, 29, 38) with the draw of 21 October 2011 — its closest relative in 1,297 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 35% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 May 2014): 9, 11, 26 carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 113 — the 74th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. No two numbers side by side. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

38 had not appeared for 53 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.