Tuesday, 22 July 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (17, 18, 24) with the draw of 16 January 2014 — its closest relative in 1,340 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 July 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 116 — the 78th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.