Tuesday, 21 July 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 4, 5) with the draw of 20 May 2015 — its closest relative in 1,651 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 July 2015): 1 carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 28 — the 0th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2, 4–5. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.