Thursday, 24 November 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (17, 20, 26, 27) with the draw of 2 May 2013 — its closest relative in 3,901 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 72% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 November 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 128 — the 90th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 26–27. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.