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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

LotteryOracle

LotteryOracle reports what happened; it does not predict what is next. Every draw is independent — no number is ever "due".

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Jersey Cash 5 · every number

2

Number 2

In Jersey Cash 5 under the 5/40 · Apr 2010 – Sep 2014 rules — 1,610 draws, 5 from 1–40 (an earlier era).

5/45 · since Jun 20205/43 · Sep 2014 – Jun 20205/40 · Apr 2010 – Sep 2014
210times drawn · chance expected 201 +0.66σ
4draws waiting · a wait this long: 67% for any number
7.6average wait between appearances · chance says 8.0
36longest completed wait · 86% chance of one at least that long
2 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 210 times in 1,610 draws against 201.3 expected, +0.66σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

2

Number 2, draw by draw

Drawn 210 times in 1,610 draws · average wait 7.6 draws · longest completed wait 36 · waiting 4 draws now

3 draws: 2010-04-22 to 2010-04-252 draws: 2010-04-25 to 2010-04-277 draws: 2010-04-27 to 2010-05-0411 draws: 2010-05-04 to 2010-05-154 draws: 2010-05-15 to 2010-05-193 draws: 2010-05-19 to 2010-05-223 draws: 2010-05-22 to 2010-05-254 draws: 2010-05-25 to 2010-05-2921 draws: 2010-05-29 to 2010-06-195 draws: 2010-06-19 to 2010-06-244 draws: 2010-06-24 to 2010-06-2816 draws: 2010-06-28 to 2010-07-149 draws: 2010-07-14 to 2010-07-2329 draws: 2010-07-23 to 2010-08-215 draws: 2010-08-21 to 2010-08-267 draws: 2010-08-26 to 2010-09-025 draws: 2010-09-02 to 2010-09-076 draws: 2010-09-07 to 2010-09-1311 draws: 2010-09-13 to 2010-09-242 draws: 2010-09-24 to 2010-09-262 draws: 2010-09-26 to 2010-09-282 draws: 2010-09-28 to 2010-09-302 draws: 2010-09-30 to 2010-10-022 draws: 2010-10-02 to 2010-10-043 draws: 2010-10-04 to 2010-10-0725 draws: 2010-10-07 to 2010-11-012 draws: 2010-11-01 to 2010-11-0318 draws: 2010-11-03 to 2010-11-2111 draws: 2010-11-21 to 2010-12-021 draws: 2010-12-02 to 2010-12-031 draws: 2010-12-03 to 2010-12-043 draws: 2010-12-04 to 2010-12-073 draws: 2010-12-07 to 2010-12-108 draws: 2010-12-10 to 2010-12-188 draws: 2010-12-18 to 2010-12-273 draws: 2010-12-27 to 2010-12-301 draws: 2010-12-30 to 2010-12-3113 draws: 2010-12-31 to 2011-01-131 draws: 2011-01-13 to 2011-01-144 draws: 2011-01-14 to 2011-01-185 draws: 2011-01-18 to 2011-01-2320 draws: 2011-01-23 to 2011-02-122 draws: 2011-02-12 to 2011-02-142 draws: 2011-02-14 to 2011-02-1614 draws: 2011-02-16 to 2011-03-0212 draws: 2011-03-02 to 2011-03-143 draws: 2011-03-14 to 2011-03-172 draws: 2011-03-17 to 2011-03-1910 draws: 2011-03-19 to 2011-03-293 draws: 2011-03-29 to 2011-04-0127 draws: 2011-04-01 to 2011-04-285 draws: 2011-04-28 to 2011-05-0312 draws: 2011-05-03 to 2011-05-153 draws: 2011-05-15 to 2011-05-181 draws: 2011-05-18 to 2011-05-1914 draws: 2011-05-19 to 2011-06-022 draws: 2011-06-02 to 2011-06-043 draws: 2011-06-04 to 2011-06-071 draws: 2011-06-07 to 2011-06-0813 draws: 2011-06-08 to 2011-06-219 draws: 2011-06-21 to 2011-06-304 draws: 2011-06-30 to 2011-07-0411 draws: 2011-07-04 to 2011-07-153 draws: 2011-07-15 to 2011-07-1822 draws: 2011-07-18 to 2011-08-093 draws: 2011-08-09 to 2011-08-1211 draws: 2011-08-12 to 2011-08-248 draws: 2011-08-24 to 2011-09-023 draws: 2011-09-02 to 2011-09-053 draws: 2011-09-05 to 2011-09-088 draws: 2011-09-08 to 2011-09-1617 draws: 2011-09-16 to 2011-10-032 draws: 2011-10-03 to 2011-10-052 draws: 2011-10-05 to 2011-10-0710 draws: 2011-10-07 to 2011-10-182 draws: 2011-10-18 to 2011-10-202 draws: 2011-10-20 to 2011-10-223 draws: 2011-10-22 to 2011-10-251 draws: 2011-10-25 to 2011-10-264 draws: 2011-10-26 to 2011-10-307 draws: 2011-10-30 to 2011-11-063 draws: 2011-11-06 to 2011-11-094 draws: 2011-11-09 to 2011-11-133 draws: 2011-11-13 to 2011-11-166 draws: 2011-11-16 to 2011-11-224 draws: 2011-11-22 to 2011-11-2611 draws: 2011-11-26 to 2011-12-071 draws: 2011-12-07 to 2011-12-082 draws: 2011-12-08 to 2011-12-1016 draws: 2011-12-10 to 2011-12-273 draws: 2011-12-27 to 2011-12-301 draws: 2011-12-30 to 2011-12-312 draws: 2011-12-31 to 2012-01-0219 draws: 2012-01-02 to 2012-01-211 draws: 2012-01-21 to 2012-01-2213 draws: 2012-01-22 to 2012-02-046 draws: 2012-02-04 to 2012-02-102 draws: 2012-02-10 to 2012-02-123 draws: 2012-02-12 to 2012-02-1512 draws: 2012-02-15 to 2012-02-271 draws: 2012-02-27 to 2012-02-289 draws: 2012-02-28 to 2012-03-084 draws: 2012-03-08 to 2012-03-1215 draws: 2012-03-12 to 2012-03-273 draws: 2012-03-27 to 2012-03-301 draws: 2012-03-30 to 2012-03-319 draws: 2012-03-31 to 2012-04-0917 draws: 2012-04-09 to 2012-04-261 draws: 2012-04-26 to 2012-04-279 draws: 2012-04-27 to 2012-05-0622 draws: 2012-05-06 to 2012-05-307 draws: 2012-05-30 to 2012-06-062 draws: 2012-06-06 to 2012-06-085 draws: 2012-06-08 to 2012-06-1315 draws: 2012-06-13 to 2012-06-288 draws: 2012-06-28 to 2012-07-074 draws: 2012-07-07 to 2012-07-115 draws: 2012-07-11 to 2012-07-1613 draws: 2012-07-16 to 2012-07-292 draws: 2012-07-29 to 2012-07-311 draws: 2012-07-31 to 2012-08-012 draws: 2012-08-01 to 2012-08-0328 draws: 2012-08-03 to 2012-08-314 draws: 2012-08-31 to 2012-09-042 draws: 2012-09-04 to 2012-09-0618 draws: 2012-09-06 to 2012-09-241 draws: 2012-09-24 to 2012-09-2515 draws: 2012-09-25 to 2012-10-107 draws: 2012-10-10 to 2012-10-1712 draws: 2012-10-17 to 2012-10-296 draws: 2012-10-29 to 2012-11-057 draws: 2012-11-05 to 2012-11-122 draws: 2012-11-12 to 2012-11-146 draws: 2012-11-14 to 2012-11-207 draws: 2012-11-20 to 2012-11-274 draws: 2012-11-27 to 2012-12-011 draws: 2012-12-01 to 2012-12-021 draws: 2012-12-02 to 2012-12-037 draws: 2012-12-03 to 2012-12-109 draws: 2012-12-10 to 2012-12-1910 draws: 2012-12-19 to 2012-12-302 draws: 2012-12-30 to 2013-01-0132 draws: 2013-01-01 to 2013-02-026 draws: 2013-02-02 to 2013-02-082 draws: 2013-02-08 to 2013-02-102 draws: 2013-02-10 to 2013-02-124 draws: 2013-02-12 to 2013-02-1614 draws: 2013-02-16 to 2013-03-0221 draws: 2013-03-02 to 2013-03-231 draws: 2013-03-23 to 2013-03-243 draws: 2013-03-24 to 2013-03-2725 draws: 2013-03-27 to 2013-04-211 draws: 2013-04-21 to 2013-04-224 draws: 2013-04-22 to 2013-04-2621 draws: 2013-04-26 to 2013-05-176 draws: 2013-05-17 to 2013-05-238 draws: 2013-05-23 to 2013-05-314 draws: 2013-05-31 to 2013-06-046 draws: 2013-06-04 to 2013-06-109 draws: 2013-06-10 to 2013-06-194 draws: 2013-06-19 to 2013-06-2313 draws: 2013-06-23 to 2013-07-062 draws: 2013-07-06 to 2013-07-081 draws: 2013-07-08 to 2013-07-0912 draws: 2013-07-09 to 2013-07-217 draws: 2013-07-21 to 2013-07-2816 draws: 2013-07-28 to 2013-08-133 draws: 2013-08-13 to 2013-08-163 draws: 2013-08-16 to 2013-08-1910 draws: 2013-08-19 to 2013-08-2924 draws: 2013-08-29 to 2013-09-2215 draws: 2013-09-22 to 2013-10-079 draws: 2013-10-07 to 2013-10-1612 draws: 2013-10-16 to 2013-10-282 draws: 2013-10-28 to 2013-10-301 draws: 2013-10-30 to 2013-10-316 draws: 2013-10-31 to 2013-11-0629 draws: 2013-11-06 to 2013-12-053 draws: 2013-12-05 to 2013-12-0814 draws: 2013-12-08 to 2013-12-228 draws: 2013-12-22 to 2013-12-311 draws: 2013-12-31 to 2014-01-0114 draws: 2014-01-01 to 2014-01-151 draws: 2014-01-15 to 2014-01-168 draws: 2014-01-16 to 2014-01-246 draws: 2014-01-24 to 2014-01-304 draws: 2014-01-30 to 2014-02-034 draws: 2014-02-03 to 2014-02-074 draws: 2014-02-07 to 2014-02-1113 draws: 2014-02-11 to 2014-02-247 draws: 2014-02-24 to 2014-03-0336 draws: 2014-03-03 to 2014-04-084 draws: 2014-04-08 to 2014-04-122 draws: 2014-04-12 to 2014-04-142 draws: 2014-04-14 to 2014-04-164 draws: 2014-04-16 to 2014-04-207 draws: 2014-04-20 to 2014-04-271 draws: 2014-04-27 to 2014-04-2816 draws: 2014-04-28 to 2014-05-148 draws: 2014-05-14 to 2014-05-2215 draws: 2014-05-22 to 2014-06-064 draws: 2014-06-06 to 2014-06-1014 draws: 2014-06-10 to 2014-06-249 draws: 2014-06-24 to 2014-07-0311 draws: 2014-07-03 to 2014-07-1421 draws: 2014-07-14 to 2014-08-045 draws: 2014-08-04 to 2014-08-0918 draws: 2014-08-09 to 2014-08-2713 draws: 2014-08-27 to 2014-09-09Still waiting — at least 4 draws since 2014-09-092010-04-222010-04-252010-04-272010-05-042010-05-152010-05-192010-05-222010-05-252010-05-292010-06-192010-06-242010-06-282010-07-142010-07-232010-08-212010-08-262010-09-022010-09-072010-09-132010-09-242010-09-262010-09-282010-09-302010-10-022010-10-042010-10-072010-11-012010-11-032010-11-212010-12-022010-12-032010-12-042010-12-072010-12-102010-12-182010-12-272010-12-302010-12-312011-01-132011-01-142011-01-182011-01-232011-02-122011-02-142011-02-162011-03-022011-03-142011-03-172011-03-192011-03-292011-04-012011-04-282011-05-032011-05-152011-05-182011-05-192011-06-022011-06-042011-06-072011-06-082011-06-212011-06-302011-07-042011-07-152011-07-182011-08-092011-08-122011-08-242011-09-022011-09-052011-09-082011-09-162011-10-032011-10-052011-10-072011-10-182011-10-202011-10-222011-10-252011-10-262011-10-302011-11-062011-11-092011-11-132011-11-162011-11-222011-11-262011-12-072011-12-082011-12-102011-12-272011-12-302011-12-312012-01-022012-01-212012-01-222012-02-042012-02-102012-02-122012-02-152012-02-272012-02-282012-03-082012-03-122012-03-272012-03-302012-03-312012-04-092012-04-262012-04-272012-05-062012-05-302012-06-062012-06-082012-06-132012-06-282012-07-072012-07-112012-07-162012-07-292012-07-312012-08-012012-08-032012-08-312012-09-042012-09-062012-09-242012-09-252012-10-102012-10-172012-10-292012-11-052012-11-122012-11-142012-11-202012-11-272012-12-012012-12-022012-12-032012-12-102012-12-192012-12-302013-01-012013-02-022013-02-082013-02-102013-02-122013-02-162013-03-022013-03-232013-03-242013-03-272013-04-212013-04-222013-04-262013-05-172013-05-232013-05-312013-06-042013-06-102013-06-192013-06-232013-07-062013-07-082013-07-092013-07-212013-07-282013-08-132013-08-162013-08-192013-08-292013-09-222013-10-072013-10-162013-10-282013-10-302013-10-312013-11-062013-12-052013-12-082013-12-222013-12-312014-01-012014-01-152014-01-162014-01-242014-01-302014-02-032014-02-072014-02-112014-02-242014-03-032014-04-082014-04-122014-04-142014-04-162014-04-202014-04-272014-04-282014-05-142014-05-222014-06-062014-06-102014-06-242014-07-032014-07-142014-08-042014-08-092014-08-272014-09-092010-04-072014-09-13

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

1 draws: 24 times2 draws: 30 times3 draws: 25 times4 draws: 22 times5 draws: 8 times6 draws: 10 times7 draws: 11 times8 draws: 9 times9 draws: 9 times10 draws: 4 times11 draws: 7 times12 draws: 6 times13 draws: 7 times14 draws: 6 times15 draws: 5 times16 draws: 4 times17 draws: 2 times18 draws: 3 times19 draws: 1 time20 draws: 1 time21 draws: 4 times22 draws: 2 times23 draws: 0 times24 draws: 1 time25 draws: 2 times26 draws: 0 times27 draws: 1 time28 draws: 1 time29 draws: 2 times30 draws: 0 times31 draws: 0 times32 draws: 1 time33 draws: 0 times34 draws: 0 times35 draws: 0 times36 draws: 1 time37 draws: 0 timesits own waitsdraws between appearances

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 2 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

  • 1st smallest192 · chance 188.5
  • 2nd smallest18 · chance 21.5
  • 3rd smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 21.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

3341883139

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 2 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

  • Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
  • Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 2 →

Every draw it appeared in

DateWaitPositionThe draw
2014-09-09131st2451438
2014-08-27181st210182226
2014-08-0951st211182039
2014-08-04211st218203439
2014-07-14111st210283031
2014-07-0391st218202332
2014-06-24141st210313739
2014-06-1041st24222328
2014-06-06151st2672832
2014-05-2281st28141836
2014-05-14162nd1252131
2014-04-2811st26173335
2014-04-2771st225263436
2014-04-2041st23152036
2014-04-1621st24293134
2014-04-1421st24568
2014-04-1241st25121520
2014-04-08361st23183033
2014-03-0371st27222627
2014-02-24131st24161726
2014-02-1141st213173436
2014-02-0741st28152639
2014-02-0341st28253640
2014-01-3061st27142331
The other 186 appearances
2014-01-2481st28182329
2014-01-1611st210222633
2014-01-15141st24273139
2014-01-0111st215253036
2013-12-3182nd12152630
2013-12-22141st211162127
2013-12-0831st28112140
2013-12-05292nd1233138
2013-11-0661st213202639
2013-10-3111st28113239
2013-10-3021st29121318
2013-10-28121st218303340
2013-10-1691st23121338
2013-10-07151st25163339
2013-09-22241st213141519
2013-08-29101st27152739
2013-08-1931st2391431
2013-08-1631st28111939
2013-08-13161st213161723
2013-07-2871st26173739
2013-07-21121st210213338
2013-07-0911st27111539
2013-07-0821st25121837
2013-07-06131st27183236
2013-06-2341st211223337
2013-06-1991st214161734
2013-06-1062nd12223536
2013-06-0441st26153940
2013-05-3181st212183340
2013-05-2361st24142628
2013-05-17211st210202937
2013-04-2641st29272936
2013-04-2211st218293138
2013-04-21252nd126715
2013-03-2731st28243840
2013-03-2411st27272838
2013-03-23211st24243033
2013-03-02141st25132837
2013-02-1641st29192133
2013-02-1221st220222731
2013-02-1021st217213033
2013-02-0862nd1271234
2013-02-02321st24101233
2013-01-0121st28122040
2012-12-30101st25171825
2012-12-1991st26143639
2012-12-1071st212183840
2012-12-0311st25202235
2012-12-0211st236929
2012-12-0141st28192233
2012-11-2771st219213337
2012-11-2061st2343637
2012-11-1421st210161721
2012-11-1271st24213339
2012-11-0561st216223132
2012-10-29121st27111634
2012-10-1771st23102124
2012-10-10151st23101326
2012-09-2511st218303138
2012-09-24181st29232426
2012-09-0621st28121839
2012-09-0441st224252738
2012-08-31281st268933
2012-08-0321st27303237
2012-08-0112nd1253133
2012-07-3122nd1251734
2012-07-29131st211233239
2012-07-1651st245814
2012-07-1141st27253335
2012-07-0781st214212240
2012-06-28151st211173437
2012-06-1351st210202127
2012-06-0821st2791721
2012-06-0671st24111926
2012-05-30221st26101430
2012-05-0691st2361221
2012-04-2712nd12111922
2012-04-26171st219222735
2012-04-0991st217293540
2012-03-3111st24222440
2012-03-3032nd12101725
2012-03-27151st24272837
2012-03-1241st2451525
2012-03-0891st29142223
2012-02-2811st26182033
2012-02-27121st220262836
2012-02-1531st215172138
2012-02-1221st26272833
2012-02-1061st24212338
2012-02-04131st213232935
2012-01-2211st29172027
2012-01-21191st2482328
2012-01-0221st225363739
2011-12-3111st215192328
2011-12-3031st212353840
2011-12-27161st26293236
2011-12-1021st28253139
2011-12-0811st2451329
2011-12-07111st214162636
2011-11-2641st23283840
2011-11-2261st2581222
2011-11-1631st24122638
2011-11-1341st28203136
2011-11-0931st24223336
2011-11-0671st213213036
2011-10-3042nd1291217
2011-10-2611st24162039
2011-10-2531st215283739
2011-10-2221st24242735
2011-10-2021st27182023
2011-10-18101st25182228
2011-10-0721st227333438
2011-10-0521st216173536
2011-10-03171st218313340
2011-09-1681st29162022
2011-09-0831st214252933
2011-09-0531st29102029
2011-09-0281st2673740
2011-08-24111st24293335
2011-08-1231st210213039
2011-08-09221st23121637
2011-07-1831st211212940
2011-07-15111st24161833
2011-07-0441st2581923
2011-06-3091st27192531
2011-06-21131st219263740
2011-06-0811st218203240
2011-06-0731st210232537
2011-06-0421st28183038
2011-06-02141st26122436
2011-05-1911st213152729
2011-05-1831st26152329
2011-05-15121st26283234
2011-05-0351st225333637
2011-04-28271st23333538
2011-04-0131st210193940
2011-03-29101st24212534
2011-03-1921st210263339
2011-03-1732nd12252732
2011-03-14121st216313740
2011-03-02141st2583138
2011-02-1621st213183133
2011-02-1421st23242538
2011-02-12201st27232425
2011-01-2351st220212839
2011-01-1841st214242635
2011-01-1411st2672038
2011-01-13131st213152530
2010-12-3111st216223132
2010-12-3031st211273135
2010-12-2781st245811
2010-12-1881st25183540
2010-12-1031st215243236
2010-12-0731st26253038
2010-12-0412nd12243235
2010-12-0311st25171830
2010-12-02112nd12161929
2010-11-21182nd12192228
2010-11-0321st28193040
2010-11-01251st217273136
2010-10-0731st2891931
2010-10-0421st24272838
2010-10-0221st231323738
2010-09-3021st23243435
2010-09-2821st27182130
2010-09-2621st25112534
2010-09-24111st28182227
2010-09-1361st25252732
2010-09-0751st28172537
2010-09-0271st25122729
2010-08-2651st212233339
2010-08-21291st210172539
2010-07-2391st211273034
2010-07-14161st213181933
2010-06-2842nd12273038
2010-06-2451st224333740
2010-06-19211st24153140
2010-05-2941st211243140
2010-05-2531st2482332
2010-05-2232nd1271321
2010-05-1942nd12121630
2010-05-15111st210233940
2010-05-0471st28253140
2010-04-2721st211151719
2010-04-2531st2691136
2010-04-22—1st28131521
← number 1Every numbernumber 3 →
What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 2 is drawn with probability 5/40 tonight whatever it did last week.