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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Revancha · every number · star deck
In Revancha under the 5/35 + 1/10 · since Jun 2025 rules — 212 draws, 1 from 1–10.
Drawn 22 times in 212 draws against 21.2 expected, +0.18σ. Each draw is independent: after 24 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 22 times in 212 draws · average wait 8.7 draws · longest completed wait 34 · waiting 24 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 3 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
No shared draws yet.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 9 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 3 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 3 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | 9 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | 5 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-07-15 | 3 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-07-08 | 4 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-06-29 | 1 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-06-26 | 8 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-06-08 | 17 | 1st | 3 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 3 is drawn with probability 1/10 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2026-04-29 | 1 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-04-27 | 34 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-01-30 | 8 | 1st | 3 |
| 2026-01-12 | 18 | 1st | 3 |
| 2025-12-01 | 10 | 1st | 3 |
| 2025-11-07 | 1 | 1st | 3 |
| 2025-11-05 | 14 | 1st | 3 |
| 2025-10-03 | 5 | 1st | 3 |
| 2025-09-22 | 27 | 1st | 3 |
| 2025-07-21 | 2 | 1st | 3 |
| 2025-07-16 | 9 | 1st | 3 |
| 2025-06-23 | — | 1st | 3 |