Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Revancha · every number · star deck
In Revancha under the 5/35 + 1/10 · since Jun 2025 rules — 212 draws, 1 from 1–10.
Drawn 18 times in 212 draws against 21.2 expected, −0.73σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 18 times in 212 draws · average wait 11.7 draws · longest completed wait 36 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 8 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
No shared draws yet.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 9 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 8 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 17 | 1st | 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | 1 | 1st | 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | 9 | 1st | 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | 28 | 1st | 8 |
| 2026-06-12 | 3 | 1st | 8 |
| 2026-06-05 | 26 | 1st | 8 |
| 2026-04-06 | 6 | 1st | 8 |
| 2026-03-20 | 36 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-12-26 | 5 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-12-15 | 1 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-12-12 | 17 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-11-03 | 5 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-10-22 | 14 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-09-19 | 3 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-09-12 | 14 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-08-11 | 10 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-07-18 | 4 | 1st | 8 |
| 2025-07-09 | — | 1st | 8 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 8 is drawn with probability 1/10 tonight whatever it did last week.