In PowerBall under the 5/50 + 1/20 · since Jun 2018 rules — 870 draws, 1 from 1–20.
48times drawn · chance expected 44 +0.70σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 90% for any number
18.3average wait between appearances · chance says 20.0
72longest completed wait · 71% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 48 times in 870 draws against 43.5 expected, +0.70σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 48 times in 870 draws · average wait 18.3 draws · longest completed wait 72 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 19 of the other 19 numbers; chance expects about 19 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 20. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 1/20 tonight whatever it did last week.