Number 4

In Spiel 77 under the 7/9 · since Sep 2024 rules — 216 draws, 7 from 0–9.

163times drawn · chance expected 151 +1.75σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 30% for any number

1.3average wait between appearances · chance says 1.4

7longest completed wait · 11% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 163 times in 216 draws against 151.2 expected, +1.75σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 163 times in 216 draws · average wait 1.3 draws · longest completed wait 7 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest3 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest29 · chance 7.8
3rd smallest54 · chance 58.2
4th smallest49 · chance 77.6
5th smallest22 · chance 19.4
6th smallest6 · chance 0.0
7th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 108.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

0 8 6 9 5 1

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 9 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-10-14	0	4th	0 0 2 4 6 9
2026-10-14	1	4th	0 0 2 4 6 9
2026-10-10	2	5th	0 0 1 1 4 7 9
2026-10-03	1

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 7/10 tonight whatever it did last week.

2026-06-10	1	5th	1 2 2 3 4 8 9
2026-06-06	1	1st	4 5 7 7 7 8 8
2026-06-03	0	3rd	0 1 4 7 8 9
2026-06-03	5	3rd	0 1 4 7 8 9
2026-05-16	1	4th	2 3 3 4 5 7 9
2026-05-13	1	3rd	1 2 4 7 8 8 9
2026-05-09	1	4th	0 1 3 4 5 6 9
2026-05-06	3	2nd	3 4 5 7 8 8 9
2026-04-25	1	3rd	1 2 4 5 6 8 8
2026-04-22	1	4th	0 1 2 4 5 5 6
2026-04-18	0	4th	0 1 2 4 6 8
2026-04-18	1	4th	0 1 2 4 6 8
2026-04-15	0	5th	0 0 3 3 4 5
2026-04-15	1	5th	0 0 3 3 4 5
2026-04-11	1	4th	1 2 3 4 7 8 9
2026-04-08	0	3rd	1 2 4 5 8 9
2026-04-08	1	3rd	1 2 4 5 8 9
2026-04-04	0	4th	0 1 3 4 8
2026-04-04	0	4th	0 1 3 4 8
2026-04-04	3	4th	0 1 3 4 8
2026-03-25	2	3rd	0 3 4 6 6 8 9
2026-03-18	1	6th	0 0 1 2 3 4 8
2026-03-14	0	3rd	2 3 4 6 7 9
2026-03-14	3	3rd	2 3 4 6 7 9
2026-03-04	1	3rd	2 2 4 6 6 9 9
2026-02-28	2	4th	1 1 2 4 6 7 8
2026-02-21	0	3rd	0 3 4 6 6 8
2026-02-21	3	3rd	0 3 4 6 6 8
2026-02-11	0	2nd	2 4 5 6 9 9
2026-02-11	2	2nd	2 4 5 6 9 9
2026-02-04	2	4th	0 1 2 4 6 7 9
2026-01-28	2	3rd	1 3 4 5 6 6 7
2026-01-21	1	3rd	3 3 4 6 7 8 9
2026-01-17	0	4th	0 2 2 4 5 7
2026-01-17	3	4th	0 2 2 4 5 7
2026-01-07	1	5th	0 2 2 2 4 8 9
2026-01-03	0	3rd	1 2 4 7 8
2026-01-03	0	3rd	1 2 4 7 8
2026-01-03	1	3rd	1 2 4 7 8
2025-12-31	1	3rd	0 2 4 6 7 8 8
2025-12-27	2	3rd	0 1 4 5 6 6 9
2025-12-20	0	3rd	0 1 4 8 9 9
2025-12-20	1	3rd	0 1 4 8 9 9
2025-12-17	0	4th	0 1 2 4 5 6
2025-12-17	1	4th	0 1 2 4 5 6
2025-12-13	1	4th	0 0 3 4 5 5 6
2025-12-10	1	3rd	0 0 4 6 8 9 9
2025-12-06	2	6th	0 0 0 2 3 4 8
2025-11-29	1	4th	0 2 3 4 8 8 9
2025-11-26	1	1st	4 5 6 7 7 9 9
2025-11-22	1	3rd	1 2 4 5 6 6 9
2025-11-19	0	3rd	0 3 4 7 8 8
2025-11-19	2	3rd	0 3 4 7 8 8
2025-11-08	0	5th	0 1 3 3 4 9
2025-11-08	1	5th	0 1 3 3 4 9
2025-11-05	1	3rd	0 3 4 5 6 6 6
2025-11-01	0	4th	0 1 1 4 6 8
2025-11-01	3	4th	0 1 1 4 6 8
2025-10-22	1	4th	0 0 1 4 7 7 8
2025-10-18	1	2nd	3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2025-10-15	2	3rd	1 2 4 5 6 8 9
2025-10-08	2	3rd	0 1 4 5 5 6 7
2025-10-01	1	6th	2 2 2 3 3 4 7
2025-09-27	2	4th	1 2 3 4 5 5 8
2025-09-20	1	4th	0 0 3 4 5 7 8
2025-09-17	1	4th	0 1 2 4 6 8 9
2025-09-13	0	2nd	1 4 6 7 8
2025-09-13	0	2nd	1 4 6 7 8
2025-09-13	1	2nd	1 4 6 7 8
2025-09-10	3	3rd	1 1 4 6 6 8 9
2025-08-30	0	2nd	1 4 7 9 9 9
2025-08-30	2	2nd	1 4 7 9 9 9
2025-08-23	0	4th	0 1 3 4 5 8
2025-08-23	2	4th	0 1 3 4 5 8
2025-08-16	1	5th	0 0 1 1 4 6 7
2025-08-13	0	3rd	0 0 4 5 6 8
2025-08-13	1	3rd	0 0 4 5 6 8
2025-08-09	4	2nd	1 4 5 6 6 9 9
2025-07-26	0	4th	0 1 2 4 6 9
2025-07-26	7	4th	0 1 2 4 6 9
2025-07-02	0	2nd	1 4 5 5 8 8
2025-07-02	2	2nd	1 4 5 5 8 8
2025-06-25	1	5th	0 1 2 3 4 7 9
2025-06-21	2	4th	1 3 3 4 5 6 8
2025-06-14	1	2nd	0 4 5 5 6 6 7
2025-06-11	1	3rd	0 3 4 6 6 8 8
2025-06-07	1	3rd	0 0 4 6 7 9 9
2025-06-04	1	5th	0 0 0 1 4 5 7
2025-05-31	2	6th	0 0 0 3 3 4 6
2025-05-24	0	4th	0 1 2 4 6 6
2025-05-24	1	4th	0 1 2 4 6 6
2025-05-21	5	4th	1 2 3 4 7 8 9
2025-05-03	0	2nd	3 4 6 7 8
2025-05-03	0	2nd	3 4 6 7 8
2025-05-03	1	2nd	3 4 6 7 8
2025-04-30	0	4th	1 2 3 4 5 8
2025-04-30	1	4th	1 2 3 4 5 8
2025-04-26	0	2nd	0 4 5 6 8 9
2025-04-26	1	2nd	0 4 5 6 8 9
2025-04-23	1	4th	0 0 2 4 8 9 9
2025-04-19	2	3rd	0 2 4 5 8 9 9
2025-04-12	3	4th	0 0 0 4 5 5 8
2025-04-02	0	2nd	0 4 5 6 8 9
2025-04-02	2	2nd	0 4 5 6 8 9
2025-03-26	2	3rd	0 3 4 6 8 8 8
2025-03-19	0	3rd	0 0 4 5 7 8
2025-03-19	4	3rd	0 0 4 5 7 8
2025-03-05	1	5th	1 1 2 3 4 8 9
2025-03-01	2	3rd	1 3 4 5 6 9 9
2025-02-22	2	3rd	1 3 4 5 6 6 7
2025-02-15	2	3rd	0 1 4 6 7 8 9
2025-02-08	4	4th	0 1 1 4 5 5 6
2025-01-25	2	3rd	1 3 4 7 7 7 8
2025-01-18	1	4th	2 3 3 4 5 8 9
2025-01-15	2	2nd	2 4 6 6 7 9 9
2025-01-08	0	2nd	3 4 5 5 6 8
2025-01-08	3	2nd	3 4 5 5 6 8
2024-12-28	0	2nd	2 4 8 8 9 9
2024-12-28	1	2nd	2 4 8 8 9 9
2024-12-25	0	3rd	2 3 4 6 7 8
2024-12-25	2	3rd	2 3 4 6 7 8
2024-12-18	1	1st	4 5 5 6 9 9 9
2024-12-14	2	3rd	1 2 4 5 5 6 8
2024-12-07	1	3rd	1 1 4 5 5 9 9
2024-12-04	2	3rd	0 1 4 5 8 8 9
2024-11-27	1	4th	1 2 3 4 5 7 7
2024-11-23	1	4th	2 3 3 4 5 7 9
2024-11-20	1	3rd	2 2 4 5 5 5 7
2024-11-16	0	4th	1 2 3 4 5 9
2024-11-16	4	4th	1 2 3 4 5 9
2024-11-02	1	5th	0 1 3 3 4 6 6
2024-10-30	0	3rd	0 2 4 5 5 8
2024-10-30	1	3rd	0 2 4 5 5 8
2024-10-26	1	6th	0 1 2 2 3 4 7
2024-10-23	1	5th	0 2 2 3 4 9 9
2024-10-19	2	5th	0 1 2 3 4 7 9
2024-10-12	3	2nd	1 4 5 6 7 9 9
2024-10-02	2	3rd	3 3 4 6 7 7 9
2024-09-25	—	4th	0 1 3 4 6 7 9