In Set for Life under the 5/47 + 1/10 · since Mar 2019 rules — 795 draws, 1 from 1–10.
72times drawn · chance expected 80 −0.89σ
1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number
11.0average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
48longest completed wait · 40% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 72 times in 795 draws against 79.5 expected, −0.89σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 72 times in 795 draws · average wait 11.0 draws · longest completed wait 48 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 9 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 1/10 tonight whatever it did last week.