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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 11 May 2024

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 11
  2. 19
  3. 31
  4. 32
  5. 35
  6. 38
  7. 39

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,103 of 1,359 under them

← 2024-05-08All recent draws2024-05-15 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed11 19 31 32 35 38 + 3929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 May 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

55oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 55 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 55% of every possible ticket.

  • sum95th
  • odd79th
  • low21th
  • widest gap48th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread33th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 165 of each

11155times
19191times
31166times
32165times
35

Prize breakdown · 2024-05-11

  • Lines in play≈ 12Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.5Mto 410k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 3.2

Where the money went

  • Match 5 + Bonus16%NZ$406.8K
  • Match 432%NZ$801.7K
  • Match 3 + Bonus31%NZ$772.3K
  • 2 other tiers20%NZ$495.5K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 3.2 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

172times
38154times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,102 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (19, 31, 35, 38) with the draw of 24 April 2019 — its closest relative in 1,102 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 92% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 May 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

166

The numbers add up to 166 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 31–32. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

35 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 27% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus24≈ 19 by chanceNZ$16,948
  • Match 5591≈ 633 by chanceNZ$683
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,531≈ 1.6k by chanceNZ$60.00
  • Match 425,054≈ 25k by chanceNZ$32.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus33,577≈ 34k by chanceNZ$23.00
  • Match 3348,809≈ 349k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈12M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 5 — 591 winners, 7% fewer than the 633 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus24NZ$16,948
    Match 5591NZ$683
    Match 4 + Bonus1,531NZ$60.00
    Match 425,054NZ$32.00
    Match 3 + Bonus33,577NZ$23.00
    Match 3348,809NZ$0.00
    Totals409,586—