Number 12

In 2by2 under the 4/26 + 1/0 · Sep 2022 – Oct 2022 rules — 15 draws, 4 from 3–26 (an earlier era).

1times drawn · chance expected 3 −1.04σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

—average wait between appearances · chance says 6.0

—no completed wait yet

12 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 1 times in 15 draws against 2.5 expected, −1.04σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 12, draw by draw

Drawn 1 times in 15 draws · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Too few completed waits to plot a distribution for this number alone.

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 12 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.2
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.5
3rd smallest1 · chance 0.3
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

6 8 14

Never drawn alongside 20 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 20 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 12 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 12 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-10-03	—	3rd	6 8 12 14

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 12 is drawn with probability 4/24 tonight whatever it did last week.