In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/31 + 1/16 · since Oct 2024 rules — 743 draws, 1 from 1–16.
40times drawn · chance expected 46 −0.98σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 94% for any number
18.6average wait between appearances · chance says 16.0
95longest completed wait · 9% chance of one at least that long
10 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 40 times in 743 draws against 46.4 expected, −0.98σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
10
Number 10, draw by draw
Drawn 40 times in 743 draws · average wait 18.6 draws · longest completed wait 95 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 15 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 16. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 1/16 tonight whatever it did last week.