In Revancha under the 5/35 + 1/10 · since Jun 2025 rules — 211 draws, 5 from 1–35.
32times drawn · chance expected 30 +0.37σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 86% for any number
6.5average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0
16longest completed wait · 96% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 32 times in 211 draws against 30.1 expected, +0.37σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 32 times in 211 draws · average wait 6.5 draws · longest completed wait 16 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 0.8 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.