In Oz Lotto under the 7/47 + 3/47 · since May 2022 rules — 232 draws, 7 from 1–47.
25times drawn · chance expected 35 −1.76σ
11draws waiting · a wait this long: 20% for any number
8.3average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7
23longest completed wait · 50% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 25 times in 232 draws against 34.6 expected, −1.76σ. Each draw is independent: after 11 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 15 times, counted separately.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 25 times in 232 draws · average wait 8.3 draws · longest completed wait 23 · waiting 11 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 46 numbers; chance expected about 2 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 47. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 7/47 tonight whatever it did last week.