Number 15

In Oz Lotto under the 7/45 + 2/45 · Jan 2009 – May 2022 rules — 697 draws, 7 from 1–45 (an earlier era).

111times drawn · chance expected 108 +0.27σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

6.3average wait between appearances · chance says 6.4

25longest completed wait · 85% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 111 times in 697 draws against 108.4 expected, +0.27σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 27 times, counted separately.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 111 times in 697 draws · average wait 6.3 draws · longest completed wait 25 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest9 · chance 9.3
2nd smallest34 · chance 31.4
3rd smallest38 · chance 39.2
4th smallest20 · chance 23.2
5th smallest9 · chance 6.8
6th smallest1 · chance 0.9
7th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

45 21 43 5 3 6

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-05-03	2	3rd	4 8 15 17 21 29 44
2022-04-19	3	3rd	5 6 15 21 27 32 37
2022-03-29	22	4th	4 7 14 15 17 23

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 7/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2018-12-18	6	3rd	4 13 15 16 27 29 45
2018-11-06	3	3rd	3 14 15 22 23 27 34
2018-10-16	2	4th	2 3 14 15 21 41 43
2018-10-02	4	2nd	7 15 16 24 38 41 43
2018-09-04	4	2nd	11 15 25 30 33 36 41
2018-08-07	14	2nd	14 15 21 24 26 31 40
2018-05-01	3	4th	8 9 11 15 19 27 36
2018-04-10	7	2nd	3 15 17 23 25 31 40
2018-02-20	13	5th	1 2 5 11 15 29 35
2017-11-21	1	2nd	14 15 16 23 26 33 45
2017-11-14	3	4th	1 3 5 15 16 25 30
2017-10-24	5	2nd	9 15 22 31 35 40 44
2017-09-19	6	3rd	6 14 15 29 31 37 42
2017-08-08	2	2nd	6 15 21 25 40 43 45
2017-07-25	7	4th	1 4 6 15 22 29 39
2017-06-06	4	3rd	10 11 15 19 23 30 34
2017-05-09	7	3rd	1 3 15 16 20 33 45
2017-03-21	11	2nd	6 15 25 27 31 33 44
2017-01-03	4	3rd	1 12 15 17 23 24 27
2016-12-06	3	1st	15 17 30 34 35 43 45
2016-11-15	12	3rd	7 11 15 16 18 26 27
2016-08-23	12	3rd	1 5 15 21 32 36 45
2016-05-31	5	3rd	6 9 15 21 23 33 44
2016-04-26	3	4th	1 5 6 15 19 41 45
2016-04-05	7	3rd	2 3 15 17 28 37 44
2016-02-16	11	2nd	13 15 22 28 33 37 45
2015-12-01	14	6th	5 7 8 13 14 15 29
2015-08-25	2	1st	15 18 19 21 25 34 45
2015-08-11	4	5th	1 4 9 11 15 32 37
2015-07-14	5	2nd	2 15 30 33 34 38 44
2015-06-09	12	5th	5 7 10 14 15 21 32
2015-03-17	8	4th	4 5 14 15 16 29 42
2015-01-20	6	3rd	2 14 15 20 28 31 34
2014-12-09	1	3rd	7 13 15 21 25 42 43
2014-12-02	8	2nd	1 15 21 29 35 36 45
2014-10-07	2	3rd	3 6 15 19 20 23 28
2014-09-23	1	2nd	6 15 16 22 35 39 43
2014-09-16	1	2nd	13 15 31 33 34 36 45
2014-09-09	1	1st	15 23 25 28 38 43 44
2014-09-02	5	4th	1 3 9 15 29 40 43
2014-07-29	4	3rd	1 10 15 30 31 38 43
2014-07-01	8	4th	1 10 11 15 19 20 44
2014-05-06	6	3rd	3 11 15 25 28 29 41
2014-03-25	6	1st	15 16 23 29 33 40 45
2014-02-11	16	2nd	7 15 20 22 28 36 38
2013-10-22	16	2nd	7 15 20 21 24 28 42
2013-07-02	25	2nd	13 15 20 31 38 42 45
2013-01-08	2	3rd	1 13 15 30 35 39 40
2012-12-25	1	3rd	2 5 15 16 20 28 32
2012-12-18	1	2nd	12 15 19 22 36 41 43
2012-12-11	5	4th	3 5 12 15 21 25 30
2012-11-06	4	5th	2 7 8 13 15 29 43
2012-10-09	1	4th	1 4 12 15 22 33 43
2012-10-02	1	4th	2 11 13 15 28 33 41
2012-09-25	7	2nd	5 15 29 35 40 44 45
2012-08-07	17	3rd	3 4 15 19 28 38 44
2012-04-10	2	2nd	6 15 22 35 36 42 45
2012-03-27	1	3rd	3 11 15 17 18 24 39
2012-03-20	2	3rd	3 5 15 22 23 34 40
2012-03-06	14	3rd	5 7 15 21 29 32 41
2011-11-29	3	5th	5 6 9 12 15 33 34
2011-11-08	3	4th	1 3 6 15 18 21 34
2011-10-18	3	3rd	6 10 15 16 36 43 45
2011-09-27	14	1st	15 21 23 26 32 34 40
2011-06-21	1	1st	15 16 17 19 31 37 42
2011-06-14	1	5th	1 3 4 13 15 21 26
2011-06-07	2	4th	7 8 9 15 17 28 41
2011-05-24	2	3rd	7 9 15 21 24 25 40
2011-05-10	7	2nd	12 15 17 30 34 35 37
2011-03-22	1	3rd	10 13 15 16 37 39 44
2011-03-15	5	2nd	8 15 16 25 26 28 41
2011-02-08	19	2nd	14 15 18 23 26 30 41
2010-09-28	6	2nd	6 15 25 26 32 33 40
2010-08-17	2	3rd	2 3 15 17 23 30 44
2010-08-03	7	2nd	3 15 19 27 31 40 41
2010-06-15	1	3rd	8 10 15 18 29 32 38
2010-06-08	1	2nd	5 15 21 26 35 40 43
2010-06-01	1	3rd	6 14 15 16 18 30 40
2010-05-25	2	1st	15 24 25 28 36 37 44
2010-05-11	5	4th	7 10 13 15 18 27 45
2010-04-06	22	3rd	2 11 15 36 39 41 43
2009-11-03	7	5th	2 4 6 7 15 17 36
2009-09-15	7	3rd	7 13 15 19 27 35 43
2009-07-28	5	5th	3 6 10 11 15 35 43
2009-06-23	12	2nd	9 15 18 21 23 31 40
2009-03-31	10	4th	5 8 13 15 35 41 44
2009-01-20	—	2nd	8 15 23 27 35 37 45