Number 12

In Powerball under the 5/45 + 1/45 · Jan 2009 – Mar 2013 rules — 218 draws, 5 from 1–45 (an earlier era).

18times drawn · chance expected 24 −1.34σ

17draws waiting · a wait this long: 15% for any number

11.6average wait between appearances · chance says 9.0

32longest completed wait · 36% chance of one at least that long

12 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 18 times in 218 draws against 24.2 expected, −1.34σ. Each draw is independent: after 17 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 12, draw by draw

Drawn 18 times in 218 draws · average wait 11.6 draws · longest completed wait 32 · waiting 17 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 12 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest5 · chance 5.4
2nd smallest9 · chance 8.0
3rd smallest3 · chance 3.9
4th smallest1 · chance 0.7
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

17 23 42 1 4 7

Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 12 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 12 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2012-11-01	15	2nd	6 12 16 25 28
2012-07-19	5	2nd	6 12 31 36 42
2012-06-14	2	1st	12 15 23 27 29
2012-05-31	7	4th	1 5 10

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 12 is drawn with probability 5/45 tonight whatever it did last week.