In Powerball under the 5/45 + 1/45 · Jan 2009 – Mar 2013 rules — 218 draws, 5 from 1–45 (an earlier era).
26times drawn · chance expected 24 +0.38σ
4draws waiting · a wait this long: 70% for any number
8.5average wait between appearances · chance says 9.0
37longest completed wait · 30% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 26 times in 218 draws against 24.2 expected, +0.38σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 26 times in 218 draws · average wait 8.5 draws · longest completed wait 37 · waiting 4 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 4 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/45 tonight whatever it did last week.