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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Powerball under the 5/45 + 1/45 · Jan 2009 – Mar 2013 rules — 218 draws, 5 from 1–45 (an earlier era).
Drawn 18 times in 218 draws against 24.2 expected, −1.34σ. Each draw is independent: after 12 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 18 times in 218 draws · average wait 11.2 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 12 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 27 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 7 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 27 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 27 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 27 is drawn with probability 5/45 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2011-10-20 | 8 | 4th | 811142730 |
| 2011-08-25 | 16 | 3rd | 1421272844 |
| 2011-05-05 | 3 | 2nd | 227313240 |
| 2011-04-14 | 5 | 2nd | 127323743 |
| 2011-03-10 | 6 | 5th | 211182327 |
| 2011-01-27 | 8 | 4th | 1014232731 |
| 2010-12-02 | 7 | 4th | 311142731 |
| 2010-10-14 | 7 | 3rd | 319273541 |
| 2010-08-26 | 4 | 3rd | 717273741 |
| 2010-07-29 | 3 | 2nd | 1427424445 |
| 2010-07-08 | 25 | 2nd | 1627323845 |
| 2010-01-14 | 8 | 3rd | 1316273144 |
| 2009-11-19 | 31 | 2nd | 1727303237 |
| 2009-04-16 | — | 2nd | 2427324145 |