In Lightning Lotto under the 5/49 + 1/49 · Sep 2024 – May 2026 rules — 589 draws, 5 from 1–49 (an earlier era).
75times drawn · chance expected 60 +2.03σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 90% for any number
7.5average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8
30longest completed wait · 96% chance of one at least that long
40 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 75 times in 589 draws against 60.1 expected, +2.03σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 8 times, counted separately.
40
Number 40, draw by draw
Drawn 75 times in 589 draws · average wait 7.5 draws · longest completed wait 30 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 48 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/49 tonight whatever it did last week.