In Lightning Lotto under the 5/49 + 1/49 · Sep 2024 – May 2026 rules — 589 draws, 5 from 1–49 (an earlier era).
56times drawn · chance expected 60 −0.56σ
0draws waiting — it came up last time
10.6average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8
31longest completed wait · 89% chance of one at least that long
5 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 56 times in 589 draws against 60.1 expected, −0.56σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 14 times, counted separately.
5
Number 5, draw by draw
Drawn 56 times in 589 draws · average wait 10.6 draws · longest completed wait 31 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 5 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 48 numbers; chance expected about 0.5 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 5 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 5 is drawn with probability 5/49 tonight whatever it did last week.