In Lightning Lotto under the 5/49 + 1/49 · Sep 2024 – May 2026 rules — 589 draws, 5 from 1–49 (an earlier era).
58times drawn · chance expected 60 −0.29σ
1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number
10.2average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8
41longest completed wait · 54% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 58 times in 589 draws against 60.1 expected, −0.29σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 11 times, counted separately.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 58 times in 589 draws · average wait 10.2 draws · longest completed wait 41 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 48 numbers; chance expected about 0.4 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/49 tonight whatever it did last week.