In EuroDreams under the 6/40 + 1/5 · since Nov 2023 rules — 310 draws, 6 from 1–40.
50times drawn · chance expected 47 +0.56σ
4draws waiting · a wait this long: 61% for any number
6.0average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7
19longest completed wait · 93% chance of one at least that long
38 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 50 times in 310 draws against 46.5 expected, +0.56σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
38
Number 38, draw by draw
Drawn 50 times in 310 draws · average wait 6.0 draws · longest completed wait 19 · waiting 4 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 38 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 38 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 38 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.