In EuroDreams under the 6/40 + 1/5 · since Nov 2023 rules — 310 draws, 6 from 1–40.
54times drawn · chance expected 47 +1.19σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 85% for any number
5.7average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7
23longest completed wait · 78% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 54 times in 310 draws against 46.5 expected, +1.19σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 54 times in 310 draws · average wait 5.7 draws · longest completed wait 23 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.