Number 14

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

3times drawn · chance expected 6 −1.15σ

15draws waiting · a wait this long: 18% for any number

12.5average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

18longest completed wait · 23% chance of one at least that long

14 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 3 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, −1.15σ. Each draw is independent: after 15 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 14, draw by draw

Drawn 3 times in 48 draws · average wait 12.5 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 15 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Too few completed waits to plot a distribution for this number alone.

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 14 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 0.7
2nd smallest1 · chance 1.6
3rd smallest1 · chance 0.8

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

9 7 16 21 23

Never drawn alongside 20 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 20 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 14 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 14 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-07	7	1st	14 16 23
2022-10-30	18	2nd	9 14 21
2022-10-12	—	3rd	7 9 14

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 14 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.