Number 9

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

8times drawn · chance expected 6 +1.11σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 61% for any number

5.0average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

9longest completed wait · 96% chance of one at least that long

9 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 8 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, +1.11σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 9, draw by draw

Drawn 8 times in 48 draws · average wait 5.0 draws · longest completed wait 9 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 9 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest6 · chance 3.6
2nd smallest2 · chance 3.6
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

14 22 25 5 7 10

Never drawn alongside 12 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 13 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 9 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Culturally lucky numbers 3, 8, 9 ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 9 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-17	9	1st	9 20 22
2022-11-08	8	1st	9 13 24
2022-10-30	2	1st	9 14 21
2022-10-28	2	1st	9 11 25
2022-10-26	6	2nd	5 9 10
2022-10-20	7	1st

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 9 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.