Number 14

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Nov 2016 – Sep 2022 rules — 1,768 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

192times drawn · chance expected 204 −0.89σ

11draws waiting · a wait this long: 29% for any number

9.2average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

41longest completed wait · 76% chance of one at least that long

14 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 192 times in 1,768 draws against 204.0 expected, −0.89σ. Each draw is independent: after 11 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 14, draw by draw

Drawn 192 times in 1,768 draws · average wait 9.2 draws · longest completed wait 41 · waiting 11 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 14 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest26 · chance 42.2
2nd smallest91 · chance 99.8
3rd smallest75 · chance 49.9

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

3 1 7 6 8 11

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 25 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 14 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 14 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-09-07	7	3rd	10 11 14
2022-08-31	24	2nd	10 14 24
2022-08-07	5	3rd	6 7 14
2022-08-02	3	1st	14 19 23
2022-07-30	3	3rd	3 4 14
2022-07-27	4	3rd

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 14 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.

2022-01-13	16	3rd	2 7 14
2021-12-28	6	3rd	3 4 14
2021-12-22	5	3rd	5 9 14
2021-12-17	32	2nd	9 14 22
2021-11-15	6	3rd	11 12 14
2021-11-09	12	3rd	5 8 14
2021-10-28	26	2nd	5 14 20
2021-10-02	2	2nd	7 14 15
2021-09-30	3	2nd	10 14 22
2021-09-27	1	2nd	3 14 16
2021-09-26	12	2nd	1 14 19
2021-09-14	2	2nd	3 14 16
2021-09-12	5	3rd	6 11 14
2021-09-07	3	3rd	4 10 14
2021-09-04	1	3rd	8 8 14
2021-09-03	12	3rd	1 13 14
2021-08-22	17	3rd	7 11 14
2021-08-05	1	2nd	4 14 17
2021-08-04	13	3rd	3 10 14
2021-07-22	3	1st	14 21 23
2021-07-19	11	1st	14 16 19
2021-07-08	14	3rd	2 9 14
2021-06-24	3	2nd	2 14 26
2021-06-21	5	3rd	5 6 14
2021-06-16	3	1st	14 17 19
2021-06-13	10	2nd	3 14 15
2021-06-03	15	3rd	4 10 14
2021-05-19	2	3rd	5 8 14
2021-05-17	8	2nd	11 14 25
2021-05-09	8	3rd	3 5 14
2021-05-01	2	3rd	3 6 14
2021-04-29	8	2nd	11 14 18
2021-04-21	5	2nd	7 14 18
2021-04-16	6	3rd	1 8 14
2021-04-10	11	3rd	3 12 14
2021-03-30	7	1st	14 19 21
2021-03-23	13	3rd	2 11 14
2021-03-10	12	3rd	1 7 14
2021-02-26	3	3rd	5 6 14
2021-02-23	11	2nd	5 14 26
2021-02-12	3	2nd	12 14 16
2021-02-09	6	2nd	11 14 20
2021-02-03	1	2nd	3 14 17
2021-02-02	31	1st	14 23 26
2021-01-02	22	3rd	8 11 14
2020-12-11	3	1st	14 18 18
2020-12-08	2	2nd	2 14 16
2020-12-06	12	3rd	8 12 14
2020-11-24	4	3rd	3 7 14
2020-11-20	17	2nd	7 14 23
2020-11-03	14	2nd	7 14 16
2020-10-20	4	3rd	5 6 14
2020-10-16	24	2nd	12 14 18
2020-09-22	2	2nd	1 14 19
2020-09-20	3	2nd	11 14 22
2020-09-17	3	3rd	1 12 14
2020-09-14	29	2nd	7 14 19
2020-08-16	7	2nd	8 14 24
2020-08-09	4	2nd	9 14 24
2020-08-05	13	3rd	8 9 14
2020-07-23	11	2nd	3 14 18
2020-07-12	1	1st	14 15 20
2020-07-11	4	3rd	8 13 14
2020-07-07	3	3rd	7 12 14
2020-07-04	7	3rd	1 10 14
2020-06-27	5	2nd	7 14 19
2020-06-22	5	2nd	3 14 18
2020-06-17	14	3rd	8 9 14
2020-06-03	27	3rd	3 12 14
2020-05-07	2	1st	14 15 23
2020-05-05	6	2nd	6 14 26
2020-04-29	18	3rd	6 9 14
2020-04-11	2	2nd	4 14 17
2020-04-09	15	2nd	9 14 22
2020-03-25	19	3rd	1 5 14
2020-03-06	0	2nd	3 14
2020-03-06	3	2nd	3 14
2020-03-03	18	2nd	1 14 18
2020-02-14	8	1st	14 17 18
2020-02-06	8	3rd	1 1 14
2020-01-29	1	3rd	2 13 14
2020-01-28	1	1st	14 22 25
2020-01-27	15	2nd	1 14 15
2020-01-12	26	2nd	4 14 24
2019-12-17	7	2nd	7 14 16
2019-12-10	5	3rd	3 11 14
2019-12-05	12	3rd	4 9 14
2019-11-23	4	2nd	11 14 16
2019-11-19	20	3rd	2 13 14
2019-10-30	1	3rd	7 10 14
2019-10-29	3	3rd	2 10 14
2019-10-26	11	3rd	1 13 14
2019-10-15	21	3rd	5 8 14
2019-09-24	0	2nd	13 14
2019-09-24	7	2nd	13 14
2019-09-17	3	2nd	6 14 15
2019-09-14	8	2nd	12 14 19
2019-09-06	7	2nd	3 14 25
2019-08-30	21	2nd	12 14 19
2019-08-09	7	2nd	4 14 19
2019-08-02	20	2nd	1 14 18
2019-07-13	1	3rd	7 10 14
2019-07-12	34	3rd	3 7 14
2019-06-08	5	2nd	2 14 21
2019-06-03	0	1st	14 26
2019-06-03	1	1st	14 26
2019-06-02	4	2nd	9 14 17
2019-05-29	2	2nd	5 14 17
2019-05-27	10	2nd	9 14 26
2019-05-17	2	2nd	8 14 21
2019-05-15	1	2nd	4 14 22
2019-05-14	26	2nd	5 14 15
2019-04-18	5	1st	14 16 18
2019-04-13	9	2nd	5 14 20
2019-04-04	12	2nd	9 14 19
2019-03-23	4	2nd	5 14 15
2019-03-19	8	2nd	6 14 24
2019-03-11	8	3rd	7 10 14
2019-03-03	2	3rd	1 12 14
2019-03-01	4	3rd	8 13 14
2019-02-25	7	3rd	1 2 14
2019-02-18	2	3rd	5 6 14
2019-02-16	7	2nd	8 14 25
2019-02-09	26	3rd	2 6 14
2019-01-14	2	3rd	9 11 14
2019-01-12	5	2nd	8 14 16
2019-01-07	3	2nd	6 14 17
2019-01-04	8	2nd	6 14 19
2017-12-27	6	2nd	7 14 23
2017-12-21	31	3rd	3 11 14
2017-11-20	4	2nd	3 14 20
2017-11-16	10	2nd	8 14 20
2017-11-06	4	1st	14 21 25
2017-11-02	37	2nd	8 14 18
2017-09-26	6	2nd	7 14 23
2017-09-20	1	2nd	1 14 21
2017-09-19	3	2nd	2 14 26
2017-09-16	7	1st	14 16 20
2017-09-09	17	2nd	8 14 19
2017-08-23	6	2nd	6 14 16
2017-08-17	5	2nd	6 14 21
2017-08-12	7	3rd	1 13 14
2017-08-05	24	1st	14 25 26
2017-07-12	6	2nd	1 14 20
2017-07-06	5	3rd	4 6 14
2017-07-01	1	2nd	11 14 16
2017-06-30	31	1st	14 15 21
2017-05-30	13	2nd	3 14 15
2017-05-17	10	2nd	13 14 18
2017-05-07	8	3rd	4 8 14
2017-04-29	16	1st	14 16 22
2017-04-13	1	2nd	12 14 21
2017-04-12	6	3rd	4 5 14
2017-04-06	1	1st	14 18 20
2017-04-05	8	1st	14 18 20
2017-03-28	10	1st	14 15 26
2017-03-18	41	3rd	5 6 14
2017-02-05	5	2nd	4 14 15
2017-01-31	4	1st	14 20 26
2017-01-27	18	3rd	10 12 14
2017-01-09	3	2nd	11 14 25
2017-01-06	10	2nd	9 14 19
2016-12-27	10	3rd	7 7 14
2016-12-17	6	3rd	1 3 14
2016-12-11	2	2nd	1 14 17
2016-12-09	8	1st	14 15 18
2016-12-01	14	2nd	3 14 22
2016-11-17	—	1st	14 16 19