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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In 2by2 under the 4/26 + 1/0 · Sep 2022 – Oct 2022 rules — 15 draws, 4 from 3–26 (an earlier era).
Drawn 3 times in 15 draws against 2.5 expected, +0.35σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 3 times in 15 draws · average wait 5.5 draws · longest completed wait 8 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Too few completed waits to plot a distribution for this number alone.
Sort a draw and 3 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 16 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 16 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 3 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-02 | 8 | 1st | 351621 |
| 2022-09-24 | 3 | 1st | 351426 |
| 2022-09-21 | — | 1st | 351125 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 3 is drawn with probability 4/24 tonight whatever it did last week.