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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In 2by2 under the 4/26 + 1/0 · Sep 2022 – Oct 2022 rules — 15 draws, 4 from 3–26 (an earlier era).
Drawn 2 times in 15 draws against 2.5 expected, −0.35σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 2 times in 15 draws · average wait 8.0 draws · longest completed wait 8 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Too few completed waits to plot a distribution for this number alone.
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 17 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 18 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-01 | 8 | 1st | 461416 |
| 2022-09-23 | — | 1st | 481026 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 4/24 tonight whatever it did last week.