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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In 2by2 under the 4/26 + 1/0 · Sep 2022 – Oct 2022 rules — 15 draws, 4 from 3–26 (an earlier era).
Drawn 7 times in 15 draws against 2.5 expected, +3.12σ. Testing all 24 numbers at once means about 0.2 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 4.2e-4 and this does not pass it.
Drawn 7 times in 15 draws · average wait 1.8 draws · longest completed wait 3 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 5 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 5 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-02 | 2 | 2nd | 351621 |
| 2022-09-30 | 1 | 1st | 5182124 |
| 2022-09-29 | 1 | 1st | 5111722 |
| 2022-09-28 | 3 | 1st | 581325 |
| 2022-09-25 | 1 | 1st | 5 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 5 is drawn with probability 4/24 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-09-24 | 3 | 2nd | 351426 |
| 2022-09-21 | — | 2nd | 351125 |