In Fantasy 5 under the 5/39 · Apr 2010 – Mar 2011 rules — 285 draws, 5 from 1–39 (an earlier era).
37times drawn · chance expected 37 +0.08σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 87% for any number
6.6average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8
21longest completed wait · 91% chance of one at least that long
12 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 37 times in 285 draws against 36.5 expected, +0.08σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
12
Number 12, draw by draw
Drawn 37 times in 285 draws · average wait 6.6 draws · longest completed wait 21 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 12 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 38 numbers; chance expected about 0.8 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 12 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 12 is drawn with probability 5/39 tonight whatever it did last week.