In Fantasy 5 under the 5/39 · Apr 2010 – Mar 2011 rules — 285 draws, 5 from 1–39 (an earlier era).
31times drawn · chance expected 37 −0.98σ
15draws waiting · a wait this long: 15% for any number
8.6average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8
33longest completed wait · 31% chance of one at least that long
38 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 31 times in 285 draws against 36.5 expected, −0.98σ. Each draw is independent: after 15 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
38
Number 38, draw by draw
Drawn 31 times in 285 draws · average wait 8.6 draws · longest completed wait 33 · waiting 15 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 38 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 1 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 38 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 38 is drawn with probability 5/39 tonight whatever it did last week.