In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 162 draws, 5 from 1–70.
14times drawn · chance expected 12 +0.74σ
4draws waiting · a wait this long: 80% for any number
12.1average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0
41longest completed wait · 50% chance of one at least that long
16 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 14 times in 162 draws against 11.6 expected, +0.74σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
16
Number 16, draw by draw
Drawn 14 times in 162 draws · average wait 12.1 draws · longest completed wait 41 · waiting 4 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 31 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 31 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.