In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 162 draws, 5 from 1–70.
10times drawn · chance expected 12 −0.48σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 93% for any number
17.6average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0
63longest completed wait · 9% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 10 times in 162 draws against 11.6 expected, −0.48σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 10 times in 162 draws · average wait 17.6 draws · longest completed wait 63 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 40 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 39 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.