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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Lottario Early Bird · every number
In Lottario Early Bird under the 4/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 108 draws, 4 from 1–45.
Drawn 20 times in 108 draws against 9.6 expected, +3.52σ. Testing all 45 numbers at once means about 0.5 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 2.2e-4 and this does not pass it.
Drawn 20 times in 108 draws · average wait 5.5 draws · longest completed wait 27 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 23 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 16 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 23 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 23 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | 1 | 1st | 23272839 |
| 2026-10-03 | 3 | 4th | 5101623 |
| 2026-09-12 | 9 | 3rd | 8182343 |
| 2026-07-11 | 5 | 2nd | 17233038 |
| 2026-06-06 | 8 | 4th | 291423 |
| 2026-04-11 | 2 | 3rd | 9152340 |
| 2026-03-28 | 1 | 2nd | 18232835 |
| 2026-03-21 | 6 | 4th | 11151723 |
| 2026-02-07 | 5 | 3rd | 9212327 |
| 2026-01-03 | 3 | 1st | 23273340 |
| 2025-12-13 | 27 | 2nd | 19234041 |
| 2025-06-07 | 15 | 3rd | 2152326 |
| 2025-02-22 | 1 | 3rd | 15212333 |
| 2025-02-15 | 1 | 2nd | 17232739 |
| 2025-02-08 | 3 | 1st | 23394142 |
| 2025-01-18 | 4 | 3rd | 452335 |
| 2024-12-21 | 2 | 3rd | 7212324 |
| 2024-12-07 | 3 | 2nd | 5233039 |
| 2024-11-16 | 5 | 3rd | 7192339 |
| 2024-10-12 | — | 4th | 481423 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 23 is drawn with probability 4/45 tonight whatever it did last week.